← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Bailey Ober (ERA 4.21, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 54% | 1.86 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 46% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 1.60 | 1.79 | +12.4% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.29 | 2.05 | -10.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1461.73 | 1483.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.16 | -14.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |