← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 07:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 45% | 9.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.73 | 1.68 | -3.3% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.93 | 2.19 | +13.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1408.34 | 1499.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.18 | 7.95 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |