← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Gusto (ERA 4.14, WHIP 1.44) · home: Kevin Gausman (ERA 4.55, WHIP 1.27)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.61 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.61 | $6.10 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 61% | 3.80 |
| Miami Marlins win | 39% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.46 | 1.28 | -48.0% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.50 | 3.80 | +153.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1548.53 | 1488.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.29 | 0.39 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |