San Diego Padres 4–1 Chicago Cubs

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Thu, Oct 1, 02:00 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+5%	+8.61	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	56%	1.86
Chicago Cubs win	44%	36.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago Cubs win		1.97	8.41	+326.5%
San Diego Padres win		1.76	1.15	-34.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago Cubs	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
San Diego Padres	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Diego Padres	Chicago Cubs
elo	1558.45	1542.89
elo momentum (last 5)	8.67	-3.11