← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 22, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.72, WHIP 0.93) · home: Max Fried (ERA 2.63, WHIP 0.98)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.80 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.80 | $8.00 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 54% | 1.80 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 46% | 2.14 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1566.84 | 1548.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.96 | 2.04 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |