← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Will Warren (ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.36) · home: Corbin Burnes (ERA 5.87, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 50% | 2.01 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 50% | 1.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.83 | 1.90 | +3.7% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.83 | 1.97 | +7.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1509.34 | 1568.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.22 | 5.09 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.80 |