← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Bennett (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.07) · home: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.62, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Texas Rangers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 51% | 1.95 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 49% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 2.01 | 1.93 | -3.9% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.93 | 1.90 | -1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1487.92 | 1547.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.62 | -5.19 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |