← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Griffin Jax (ERA 3.62, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.90 | $8.96 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 51% | 1.97 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 49% | 2.05 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 2.05 | 1.93 | -5.8% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.79 | 1.90 | +5.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1544.66 | 1549.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.58 | -1.15 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |