← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.7, WHIP 1.23)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 lost leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.04 | $16.07 | +13% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 60% | 1.62 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 40% | 5.56 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.58 | 1.18 | -25.6% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.14 | 5.56 | +159.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1413.42 | 1494.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.31 | -7.11 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |