← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 24, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Daniel Espino (ERA 4.73, WHIP 1.43) · home: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.27, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 lost leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.04 | $16.07 | +13% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.75 | $7.50 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.05 | 2.17 | +106.9% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.31 | 1.72 | +31.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1542.59 | 1510.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.59 | 6.70 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.90 |