← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Richard Lovelady (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.84) · home: Framber Valdez (ERA 4.06, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +1% | +16.00 | won |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.58 | $13.16 | +17% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 59% | 1.76 |
| Washington Nationals win | 41% | 2.60 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.24 | 2.50 | +11.8% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.63 | 1.56 | -4.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1498.61 | 1463.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.37 | 7.14 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |