← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 23, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.51, WHIP 0.81) · home: Aaron Nola (ERA 4.49, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.58 | $13.16 | +17% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 45% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.71 | +0.4% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.86 | 2.20 | +18.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1555.13 | 1591.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.51 | -0.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.40 |