← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.79) · home: Griffin Jax (ERA 3.8, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.31 | $13.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.31 | $13.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 44% | 2.31 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 2.19 | 2.25 | +2.9% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.55 | 1.67 | +7.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1547.75 | 1546.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.52 | -3.85 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.00 |