← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.35, WHIP 1.27) · home: Michael McGreevy (ERA 3.83, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 52% | 5.56 |
| Washington Nationals win | 48% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 1.90 | 1.18 | -37.9% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.73 | 5.56 | +220.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1481.59 | 1461.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.04 | 10.14 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |