← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 16, 07:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Keider Montero (ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.03) · home: Max Scherzer (ERA 6.38, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +4% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 52% | 2.29 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 48% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.90 | 2.05 | +8.1% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.76 | 1.82 | +3.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1513.78 | 1508.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.18 | 15.24 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.30 |