← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 09:30 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: David Peterson (ERA 4.96, WHIP 1.51) · home: Brayan Bello (ERA 4.49, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +4% | +9.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 49% | 2.06 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.86 | 1.83 | -1.6% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.86 | 2.01 | +8.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1542.05 | 1545.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.66 | -4.41 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.50 |