Houston Astros 3–7 Chicago White Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Wed, Sep 30, 09:00 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in TBD v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	-48%	+15.88	won
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in TBD v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	-48%	+15.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Houston Astros win	58%	1.76
Chicago White Sox win	42%	2.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago White Sox win		2.14	2.29	+6.9%
Houston Astros win		1.67	1.65	-1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago White Sox	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
Houston Astros	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Houston Astros	Chicago White Sox
elo	NaN	NaN
elo momentum (last 5)	5.40	—