← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 21, 10:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trey Yesavage (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.14) · home: Shane Baz (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +4% | +9.50 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 51% | 1.95 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 49% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.97 | 1.93 | -2.0% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.67 | 1.90 | +13.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1496.35 | 1513.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.69 | -5.89 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |