← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Eury Pérez (ERA 3.99, WHIP 1.24) · home: Casey Mize (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.68 | $6.80 | +4% | +6.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 61% | 2.05 |
| Miami Marlins win | 39% | 10.50 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.34 | 2.22 | -5.2% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.62 | 1.72 | +6.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1544.42 | 1487.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.56 | 4.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 5.20 |