← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Corbin Burnes (ERA 7.84, WHIP 1.55)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +7% | +8.27 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 51% | 1.93 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 49% | 2.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0.0% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.76 | 1.93 | +9.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1548.05 | 1526.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.14 | 16.91 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.30 |