New York Yankees 9–2 Boston Red Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Thu, Oct 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.72, WHIP 1.15) · home: Max Fried (ERA 2.8, WHIP 0.99)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.83	$8.27	+5%	+8.27	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	54%	1.90
Boston Red Sox win	46%	6.29

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Boston Red Sox win		2.19	6.29	+187.7%
New York Yankees win		1.70	1.15	-32.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Boston Red Sox	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
New York Yankees	0	0	0	1	1	6	1	0	—	9

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Yankees	Boston Red Sox
elo	1569.43	1536.48
elo momentum (last 5)	7.19	-6.11