← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Seth Lugo (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +5% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.09 | 2.24 | +6.8% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.76 | 1.65 | -6.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1498.27 | 1469.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.07 | -0.60 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.30 |