← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 21, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: DJ Herz (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined) · home: River Ryan (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +4% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Washington Nationals win | 42% | 2.32 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.19 | 2.29 | +4.7% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.57 | 1.65 | +5.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1498.67 | 1463.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.46 | 8.29 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.80 |