Atlanta Braves 3–4 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Wed, Sep 30, 06:00 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost	Drought fade	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	-41%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	-41%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	50%	2.46
Atlanta Braves win	50%	2.02

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.86	1.86	0.0%
Atlanta Braves win		1.83	1.97	+7.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4
Atlanta Braves	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies
elo	NaN	1539.53
elo momentum (last 5)	—	-12.11