← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Pivetta (ERA 3.3, WHIP 1) · home: Tyler Glasnow (ERA 3.46, WHIP 0.96)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.55 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | -0% | +15.50 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 52% | 12.75 |
| San Diego Padres win | 48% | 2.55 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.19 | 1.10 | -49.5% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.69 | 7.00 | +314.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1589.62 | 1549.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.55 | 8.58 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.20 |