Toronto Blue Jays 1–5 Cincinnati Reds

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 26, 07:07 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Rhett Lowder (ERA 6.01, WHIP 1.55)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.83	$8.27	+13%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	57%	4.31
Cincinnati Reds win	43%	2.47

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cincinnati Reds win		2.29	2.35	+2.5%
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.62	1.62	-0.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cincinnati Reds	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Toronto Blue Jays	Cincinnati Reds
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1507.70	1459.12
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.67	0.90
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.83	0.83
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	3.40	3.50