← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 07:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael King (ERA 3.03, WHIP 1.15) · home: Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.55, WHIP 1.48)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +5% | +5.47 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +5% | +5.47 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +5% | +5.47 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 61% | 1.60 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 39% | 18.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.0% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1379.08 | 1538.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.27 | 2.86 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.10 |