← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Gusto (ERA 4.14, WHIP 1.4) · home: Merrill Kelly (ERA 4.97, WHIP 1.46)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.90 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 50% | 2.18 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 50% | 11.60 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.05 | 1.08 | -47.6% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.67 | 7.63 | +355.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1512.63 | 1488.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.12 | 4.83 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.10 |