← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 25, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Lodolo (ERA 5.04, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +9% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.19 | 2.14 | -2.2% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.67 | 1.74 | +3.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1506.16 | 1460.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.78 | -0.54 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.02 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |