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MLS fixtures sim 2026-07-11 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-07-11

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
7/16/2026regularCF Montreal v Toronto FC
45.3%
25.5%
29.2%
54%57%
7/17/2026regularChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps
31.7%
24.1%
44.2%
61%63%
7/17/2026regularSt. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City
56.9%
21.7%
21.5%
64%62%
7/17/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Portland Timbers
56.7%
23.7%
19.5%
53%53%
7/18/2026regularNashville SC v Atlanta United FC
61.3%
22.4%
16.3%
53%51%
7/18/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
33.8%
24.2%
42.0%
62%64%
7/22/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v New York Red Bulls
52.3%
24.0%
23.7%
56%57%
7/22/2026regularNew England Revolution v Toronto FC
50.9%
25.1%
24.0%
52%54%
7/22/2026regularColumbus Crew v New York City FC
46.9%
25.5%
27.6%
53%56%
7/22/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps
33.5%
23.8%
42.8%
64%65%
7/22/2026regularInter Miami v Chicago Fire
63.7%
17.4%
18.8%
80%73%
7/23/2026regularCharlotte v Atlanta United FC
54.4%
24.7%
20.9%
51%52%
7/23/2026regularHouston Dynamo v DC United
57.3%
23.3%
19.4%
54%54%
7/23/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC
30.9%
24.6%
44.6%
59%61%
7/23/2026regularNashville SC v CF Montreal
65.2%
20.2%
14.7%
60%54%
7/23/2026regularAustin v Seattle Sounders
28.7%
27.9%
43.5%
45%50%
7/23/2026regularColorado Rapids v San Diego
34.3%
23.3%
42.4%
66%67%
7/23/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC
55.5%
20.4%
24.1%
73%70%
7/23/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v St. Louis City
52.8%
22.4%
24.8%
64%64%
7/23/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake
57.8%
22.9%
19.3%
56%55%
7/23/2026regularPortland Timbers v FC Dallas
41.9%
24.4%
33.7%
61%63%
7/25/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Charlotte
42.5%
26.4%
31.1%
52%56%
7/25/2026regularColumbus Crew v FC Cincinnati
51.6%
22.3%
26.1%
66%66%
7/25/2026regularOrlando City SC v Nashville SC
35.8%
24.6%
39.7%
60%63%
7/25/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Seattle Sounders
38.9%
27.7%
33.4%
47%52%
7/25/2026regularNew York City FC v Chicago Fire
50.1%
24.3%
25.6%
57%58%
7/25/2026regularNew England Revolution v Atlanta United FC
49.5%
25.3%
25.2%
52%55%
7/25/2026regularCF Montreal v Inter Miami
25.2%
20.0%
54.8%
76%73%
7/25/2026regularDC United v Toronto FC
42.7%
26.2%
31.1%
52%56%
7/26/2026regularHouston Dynamo v Austin
50.9%
25.7%
23.5%
49%52%
7/26/2026regularMinnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps
34.1%
26.1%
39.8%
54%58%
7/26/2026regularSt. Louis City v Colorado Rapids
46.7%
24.3%
29.0%
59%61%
7/26/2026regularSan Diego v FC Dallas
54.7%
21.5%
23.8%
68%66%
7/26/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy
50.8%
21.6%
27.6%
71%69%
7/26/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City
74.3%
15.6%
10.2%
69%56%
7/26/2026regularPortland Timbers v Real Salt Lake
42.6%
25.3%
32.1%
56%60%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-07-27",
  "from": "2026-07-11",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-07-11 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-07-11",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}