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Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Vancouver Whitecaps win41%44%2.35value: +4%
Chicago Fire win33%32%2.95fair
Draw26%24%3.90fair

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over62%61%1.55fair
Under38%39%2.57fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Yes64%63%1.50fair
No36%37%2.70fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.552%1.87
Under 9.548%2.05

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.552%1.82
Under 4.548%1.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Vancouver Whitecaps win2.252.30+2.2%
Draw3.703.700.0%
Chicago Fire win2.752.78+1.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSoldier Field