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Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 12:00 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Nashville SC win66%61%1.49fair
Draw20%22%5.00value: +12%
Atlanta United FC win14%16%8.50value: +38%

across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over57%53%1.73fair
Under43%47%2.33value: +9%

across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Yes50%51%1.95fair
No50%49%1.95fair

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.552%1.82
Over 9.548%2.00

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Atlanta United FC win7.106.60-7.0%
Draw4.504.70+4.4%
Nashville SC win1.401.43+2.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGeodis Park