← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 12:00 AM UTC · scheduled
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 66% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +12% |
| Atlanta United FC win | 14% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +38% |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.33 | value: +9% |
across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| No | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.82 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 7.10 | 6.60 | -7.0% | |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.70 | +4.4% | |
| Nashville SC win | 1.40 | 1.43 | +2.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Geodis Park |