← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 12:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Dujic
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 4.33 | Mad game live | $173.95 | 4.33 | $579.78 | -6% | -173.95 | lost |
Nashville SC win in Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.57 | Mad game live | $479.77 | 1.57 | $273.95 | -3% | +273.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 66% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +12% |
| Atlanta United FC win | 14% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +39% |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.33 | value: +9% |
across 16 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC win | 7.10 | 6.60 | -7.0% | |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.70 | +4.4% | |
| Nashville SC win | 1.40 | 1.43 | +2.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Nashville SC · 4-4-2 · Brian Callaghan
Brian Schwake · Josh Bauer · Jack Maher · Maxwell Woledzi · Daniel Lovitz · Shakur Mohammed · Matthew Corcoran · Edvard Tagseth · Ahmed Qasem · Hany Mukhtar · Sam Surridge
Atlanta United FC · 4-3-3 · Gerardo Martino
Lucas Hoyos · Matthew Edwards · Tomás Jacob · Enea Mihaj · Elías Báez · Cooper Sanchez · Tristan Muyumba · Ajani Fortune · Luke Brennan · Aleksey Miranchuk · Miguel Almirón
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 79' | ⚽ | Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enea Mihaj · Atlanta United FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nashville SC | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 747.00 | 594.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Geodis Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| No | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 52% | 1.82 |
| Over 9.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 5.20 |
| 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.88 |
| elo | 1605.99 | 1376.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.95 | 15.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.99 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| league points | 33.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 28.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 0.79 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.15 |