The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
St. Louis City win
48%
48%
2.05
fair
Colorado Rapids win
27%
28%
3.90
value: +11%
Draw
25%
24%
3.96
fair
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
60%
59%
1.62
fair
Under
40%
41%
2.45
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
62%
61%
1.55
fair
No
38%
39%
2.63
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
55%
1.73
Under 9.5
45%
2.10
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 4.5
51%
1.83
Over 4.5
49%
1.95
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Colorado Rapids win
3.77
3.33
-11.9%
Draw
3.83
3.80
-0.9%
St. Louis City win
1.85
2.00
+8.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.