The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Los Angeles FC win
39%
42%
2.55
value: +8%
Los Angeles Galaxy win
35%
33%
2.95
fair
Draw
26%
24%
3.80
fair
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
60%
61%
1.60
fair
Under
40%
39%
2.48
fair
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
63%
63%
1.50
fair
No
37%
37%
2.65
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
52%
1.83
Under 9.5
48%
1.96
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Los Angeles FC win
2.46
2.30
-6.7%
Draw
3.63
3.60
-1.0%
Los Angeles Galaxy win
2.55
2.80
+9.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.