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MLS fixtures sim 2026-08-17 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-08-17

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
8/17/2026regularAustin v FC Dallas
35.0%
26.1%
39.0%
54%58%
8/17/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Vancouver Whitecaps
36.5%
26.9%
36.5%
50%55%
8/19/2026regularOrlando City SC v Chicago Fire
47.5%
22.0%
30.5%
71%70%
8/19/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Inter Miami
41.6%
22.1%
36.3%
72%72%
8/19/2026regularToronto FC v Charlotte
33.8%
28.1%
38.1%
45%51%
8/19/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Nashville SC
35.2%
26.9%
37.9%
50%55%
8/19/2026regularColumbus Crew v CF Montreal
63.5%
20.4%
16.1%
61%56%
8/19/2026regularDC United v New England Revolution
37.9%
25.7%
36.4%
55%59%
8/19/2026regularFC Cincinnati v New York City FC
45.2%
24.2%
30.6%
61%63%
8/20/2026regularSporting Kansas City v St. Louis City
35.7%
24.2%
40.2%
62%64%
8/20/2026regularMinnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC
56.2%
23.8%
20.0%
53%53%
8/20/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Austin
57.6%
24.0%
18.4%
50%50%
8/20/2026regularReal Salt Lake v FC Dallas
44.1%
25.4%
30.5%
55%58%
8/20/2026regularColorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
27.1%
25.0%
48.0%
55%58%
8/20/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v Houston Dynamo
60.2%
22.3%
17.5%
56%53%
8/20/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes
47.6%
22.2%
30.1%
69%69%
8/20/2026regularPortland Timbers v San Diego
38.7%
23.7%
37.7%
65%66%
8/22/2026regularOrlando City SC v Real Salt Lake
45.8%
23.6%
30.6%
63%64%
8/22/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire
44.1%
23.9%
32.0%
63%64%
8/22/2026regularCF Montreal v Los Angeles Galaxy
37.3%
24.7%
38.0%
60%63%
8/22/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Seattle Sounders
44.5%
24.6%
30.9%
59%61%
8/22/2026regularInter Miami v Toronto FC
71.2%
16.4%
12.5%
72%61%
8/22/2026regularCharlotte v DC United
59.5%
22.4%
18.1%
56%54%
8/23/2026regularNashville SC v Columbus Crew
48.0%
25.6%
26.5%
52%55%
8/23/2026regularAustin v Philadelphia Union
33.1%
26.2%
40.8%
53%57%
8/23/2026regularSt. Louis City v Houston Dynamo
42.8%
26.4%
30.9%
51%55%
8/23/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v FC Dallas
58.6%
21.9%
19.6%
61%58%
8/23/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Minnesota United FC
44.1%
24.4%
31.5%
60%62%
8/23/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Portland Timbers
63.8%
20.0%
16.3%
64%58%
8/23/2026regularSan Diego v Colorado Rapids
60.6%
20.8%
18.5%
64%60%
8/23/2026regularNew England Revolution v New York City FC
37.1%
27.0%
35.9%
50%55%
8/23/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City
53.0%
22.9%
24.1%
62%62%
8/29/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Chicago Fire
51.2%
24.2%
24.6%
57%58%
8/29/2026regularToronto FC v New York City FC
31.0%
28.2%
40.8%
44%50%
8/29/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union
38.6%
25.5%
35.9%
56%60%
8/29/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Charlotte
35.2%
26.9%
37.9%
50%55%
8/29/2026regularColumbus Crew v New England Revolution
55.9%
22.8%
21.3%
59%58%
8/29/2026regularDC United v Los Angeles FC
20.6%
22.9%
56.4%
58%57%
8/29/2026regularInter Miami v CF Montreal
74.2%
14.5%
11.3%
78%65%
8/30/2026regularHouston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes
47.3%
24.2%
28.5%
59%61%
8/30/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Vancouver Whitecaps
20.1%
21.0%
59.0%
65%62%
8/30/2026regularMinnesota United FC v Orlando City SC
50.4%
23.4%
26.3%
62%62%
8/30/2026regularNashville SC v FC Cincinnati
52.2%
23.2%
24.6%
61%61%
8/30/2026regularColorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake
41.2%
25.8%
33.0%
54%58%
8/30/2026regularPortland Timbers v Austin
55.4%
22.7%
21.9%
60%59%
8/30/2026regularSan Diego v Los Angeles Galaxy
59.6%
20.4%
20.0%
68%64%
8/30/2026regularSt. Louis City v FC Dallas
40.4%
25.3%
34.3%
57%60%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-09-02",
  "from": "2026-08-17",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-08-17 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-08-17",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}