← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.40 | Portfolio | $11.24 | 3.40 | $26.98 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.60 | Dutch cover | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.25 | Dutch cover | $17.22 | 3.25 | $38.74 | +18% | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.25 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.25 | $11.25 | +18% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United win | 45% | 38% | 2.21 | fair |
| New England Revolution win | 29% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 45% | 2.08 | fair |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 3.40 | 3.15 | -7.4% | |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.55 | -4.1% | |
| DC United win | 2.00 | 2.15 | +7.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Audi Field |