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MLS fixtures sim 2026-10-16 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-10-16

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
10/17/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v Charlotte
48.8%
25.3%
25.9%
53%55%
10/17/2026regularMinnesota United FC v St. Louis City
50.9%
24.8%
24.3%
54%56%
10/17/2026regularOrlando City SC v DC United
60.5%
20.1%
19.3%
68%64%
10/17/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Toronto FC
52.0%
25.0%
23.0%
52%54%
10/17/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Inter Miami
26.6%
21.2%
52.2%
72%70%
10/17/2026regularNew England Revolution v Chicago Fire
42.5%
24.3%
33.1%
61%63%
10/18/2026regularHouston Dynamo v FC Dallas
42.2%
26.4%
31.4%
52%56%
10/18/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
31.4%
24.4%
44.2%
60%62%
10/18/2026regularAustin v Vancouver Whitecaps
25.1%
24.6%
50.3%
55%57%
10/18/2026regularSeattle Sounders v CF Montreal
60.8%
22.6%
16.6%
53%51%
10/18/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC
38.2%
25.2%
36.7%
58%61%
10/18/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
37.0%
23.5%
39.5%
65%67%
10/18/2026regularPortland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
51.4%
23.1%
25.5%
62%62%
10/18/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew
46.0%
22.8%
31.2%
67%68%
10/24/2026regularCF Montreal v Nashville SC
27.9%
26.5%
45.7%
50%54%
10/24/2026regularColumbus Crew v Toronto FC
60.4%
22.4%
17.3%
55%53%
10/24/2026regularNew York Red Bulls v Inter Miami
32.9%
21.7%
45.4%
73%72%
10/24/2026regularOrlando City SC v New York City FC
41.1%
24.7%
34.2%
60%62%
10/24/2026regularPhiladelphia Union v New England Revolution
55.1%
23.3%
21.6%
57%57%
10/24/2026regularAtlanta United FC v Chicago Fire
37.1%
24.6%
38.2%
60%63%
10/24/2026regularDC United v FC Cincinnati
31.8%
23.1%
45.1%
66%67%
10/25/2026regularFC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes
52.0%
22.4%
25.7%
66%65%
10/25/2026regularHouston Dynamo v Minnesota United FC
42.3%
27.4%
30.3%
47%52%
10/25/2026regularReal Salt Lake v St. Louis City
50.1%
24.6%
25.3%
56%57%
10/25/2026regularColorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps
28.7%
24.6%
46.7%
58%60%
10/25/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Austin
40.3%
24.9%
34.8%
59%62%
10/25/2026regularPortland Timbers v Charlotte
44.6%
25.0%
30.4%
57%60%
10/25/2026regularSan Diego v Seattle Sounders
49.6%
24.8%
25.6%
55%57%
10/26/2026regularLos Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy
65.6%
19.3%
15.2%
65%58%
10/28/2026regularToronto FC v DC United
47.6%
26.0%
26.5%
51%54%
10/28/2026regularNew York City FC v Atlanta United FC
58.8%
23.1%
18.1%
53%52%
10/28/2026regularNew England Revolution v New York Red Bulls
45.3%
25.1%
29.6%
56%59%
10/28/2026regularInter Miami v FC Cincinnati
61.7%
17.5%
20.8%
82%76%
10/28/2026regularCharlotte v CF Montreal
58.2%
23.1%
18.7%
54%53%
10/29/2026regularFC Dallas v Columbus Crew
44.3%
24.7%
31.0%
58%61%
10/29/2026regularChicago Fire v Orlando City SC
50.6%
21.5%
27.9%
71%70%
10/29/2026regularMinnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City
64.0%
20.1%
15.9%
63%57%
10/29/2026regularNashville SC v Philadelphia Union
47.9%
25.9%
26.2%
51%54%
10/29/2026regularAustin v Real Salt Lake
36.6%
26.8%
36.6%
51%56%
10/29/2026regularSt. Louis City v Portland Timbers
44.2%
24.2%
31.7%
61%63%
10/29/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo
49.1%
26.8%
24.1%
46%49%
10/29/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
51.5%
22.5%
26.0%
65%65%
10/29/2026regularVancouver Whitecaps v San Diego
53.4%
22.6%
24.0%
63%62%
10/31/2026regularCharlotte v Orlando City SC
49.8%
23.4%
26.7%
62%62%
10/31/2026regularNew York City FC v CF Montreal
61.1%
22.3%
16.7%
54%52%
10/31/2026regularSporting Kansas City v FC Dallas
29.6%
23.6%
46.9%
63%64%
10/31/2026regularColumbus Crew v DC United
64.9%
19.7%
15.4%
63%57%
10/31/2026regularFC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union
46.2%
23.1%
30.7%
66%66%
10/31/2026regularSt. Louis City v San Diego
35.1%
24.5%
40.4%
61%63%
10/31/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake
45.7%
23.8%
30.5%
62%64%
10/31/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v Austin
53.6%
23.1%
23.3%
60%60%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-11-01",
  "from": "2026-10-16",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-10-16 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-10-16",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}