New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 17, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
New York Red Bulls win	46%	52%	2.20	value: +14%
Toronto FC win	30%	23%	3.65	fair
Draw	24%	25%	4.20	value: +5%

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Toronto FC win	2.80	3.40	+21.4%
Draw	3.90	4.10	+5.1%
New York Red Bulls win	2.17	1.91	-12.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Sports Illustrated Stadium