Orlando City SC v New York City FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 24, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Orlando City SC win	42%	41%	2.30	fair
New York City FC win	34%	34%	3.20	value: +9%
Draw	24%	25%	4.01	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
New York City FC win	2.75	2.95	+7.3%
Draw	3.80	3.90	+2.6%
Orlando City SC win	2.21	2.15	-2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Exploria Stadium