Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 24, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Chicago Fire win	39%	38%	2.70	value: +3%
Atlanta United FC win	37%	37%	2.74	fair
Draw	25%	25%	3.90	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Chicago Fire win	2.62	2.40	-8.4%
Draw	3.80	3.85	+1.3%
Atlanta United FC win	2.34	2.61	+11.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium