Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Oct 18, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Houston Dynamo win	44%	42%	2.31	fair
FC Dallas win	30%	31%	3.51	value: +10%
Draw	26%	26%	3.70	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	54%	52%	1.82	fair
Under	46%	48%	2.10	fair

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC Dallas win	3.10	3.05	-1.6%
Draw	3.50	3.50	0.0%
Houston Dynamo win	2.16	2.25	+4.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Shell Energy Stadium