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DC United v FC Cincinnati

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 24, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
FC Cincinnati win41%45%2.40value: +8%
DC United win35%32%2.90fair
Draw24%23%4.10fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
FC Cincinnati win2.402.24-6.7%
Draw3.804.00+5.3%
DC United win2.552.75+7.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Field