New England Revolution v Chicago Fire

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 17, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
New England Revolution win	40%	43%	2.45	value: +4%
Chicago Fire win	35%	33%	2.80	fair
Draw	25%	24%	4.00	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Chicago Fire win	2.80	2.70	-3.6%
Draw	3.80	3.80	0.0%
New England Revolution win	2.23	2.35	+5.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Gillette Stadium