← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Oct 28, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 49% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
| New York Red Bulls win | 28% | 30% | 3.70 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.30 | value: +8% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 3.70 | 3.35 | -9.5% | |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.00 | -2.4% | |
| New England Revolution win | 1.80 | 1.93 | +7.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Gillette Stadium |