Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Oct 18, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Real Salt Lake win	42%	44%	2.35	value: +4%
Sporting Kansas City win	34%	31%	2.95	fair
Draw	25%	24%	4.00	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	66%	60%	1.47	fair
Under	34%	40%	2.85	value: +14%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Real Salt Lake win	2.28	2.23	-2.2%
Draw	3.75	3.80	+1.3%
Sporting Kansas City win	2.75	2.80	+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Children's Mercy Park