New York City FC v Atlanta United FC

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Wed, Oct 28, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
New York City FC win	53%	59%	1.90	value: +12%
Draw	24%	23%	4.30	fair
Atlanta United FC win	23%	18%	4.46	fair

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	59%	53%	1.57	fair
Under	41%	47%	2.30	value: +7%

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Atlanta United FC win	4.10	4.15	+1.2%
Draw	3.95	4.05	+2.5%
New York City FC win	1.74	1.73	-0.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Yankee Stadium