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MLS fixtures sim 2026-08-02 (autopilot)

← all runs · poisson_tw v2 · 10,000 iterations · seed 424242 · as of 2026-08-02

Who wins each match

DateStageMatchHomeDrawAway3+ goalsBTTS
8/2/2026regularChicago Fire v Charlotte
45.0%
24.5%
30.5%
58%60%
8/2/2026regularSporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo
34.4%
25.0%
40.6%
57%60%
8/2/2026regularMinnesota United FC v San Diego
40.1%
25.1%
34.8%
57%60%
8/2/2026regularSt. Louis City v Real Salt Lake
42.6%
25.3%
32.1%
55%58%
8/2/2026regularColorado Rapids v Austin
50.2%
24.4%
25.5%
56%57%
8/2/2026regularLos Angeles Galaxy v FC Dallas
43.2%
23.4%
33.3%
64%65%
8/2/2026regularPortland Timbers v Seattle Sounders
40.1%
25.8%
34.1%
54%57%
8/8/2026regularNew England Revolution v Houston Dynamo
43.0%
26.4%
30.6%
50%54%
8/15/2026regularOrlando City SC v FC Cincinnati
45.3%
21.4%
33.3%
74%73%
8/15/2026regularToronto FC v New England Revolution
39.0%
27.1%
33.9%
48%53%
8/15/2026regularAtlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls
40.1%
25.5%
34.3%
55%58%
8/15/2026regularCF Montreal v DC United
47.3%
24.6%
28.1%
56%58%
8/15/2026regularCharlotte v Columbus Crew
42.7%
25.6%
31.7%
54%57%
8/16/2026regularHouston Dynamo v Los Angeles Galaxy
47.0%
24.4%
28.6%
58%60%
8/16/2026regularNashville SC v Inter Miami
44.1%
22.9%
32.9%
66%67%
8/16/2026regularReal Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC
44.0%
26.2%
29.8%
51%55%
8/16/2026regularColorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City
58.0%
21.0%
21.0%
65%63%
8/16/2026regularSan Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City
50.5%
22.5%
27.0%
65%65%
8/16/2026regularLos Angeles FC v San Diego
54.9%
22.5%
22.6%
61%60%
8/16/2026regularNew York City FC v Philadelphia Union
45.4%
25.9%
28.7%
51%55%
8/16/2026regularChicago Fire v Portland Timbers
48.9%
22.4%
28.7%
67%67%
8/17/2026regularAustin v FC Dallas
35.7%
25.4%
38.9%
56%59%
8/17/2026regularSeattle Sounders v Vancouver Whitecaps
37.0%
26.8%
36.2%
50%54%

Specthe reproducible recipe — same spec + seed = identical run

{
  "to": "2026-08-18",
  "from": "2026-08-02",
  "kind": "fixtures",
  "name": "MLS fixtures sim 2026-08-02 (autopilot)",
  "as_of": "2026-08-02",
  "model": {
    "shrinkage": 2
  },
  "competition": "MLS"
}