The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Los Angeles Galaxy win
43%
43%
2.25
fair
FC Dallas win
32%
33%
3.10
value: +3%
Draw
25%
23%
3.91
fair
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Over
62%
64%
1.57
fair
Under
38%
36%
2.61
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Model says
Best price
Verdict
Yes
64%
65%
1.50
fair
No
36%
35%
2.70
fair
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 10.5
51%
1.90
Over 10.5
49%
2.02
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
53%
1.78
Under 4.5
47%
2.02
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
FC Dallas win
2.93
3.00
+2.4%
Draw
3.80
3.77
-0.7%
Los Angeles Galaxy win
2.14
2.14
0.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.