Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Orlando City SC win	43%	45%	2.32	value: +5%
FC Cincinnati win	34%	33%	2.96	fair
Draw	23%	22%	4.30	fair

across 15 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	71%	74%	1.35	fair
Under	29%	26%	3.40	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	71%	73%	1.33	fair
No	29%	27%	3.25	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
FC Cincinnati win	2.65	2.84	+7.2%
Draw	4.10	4.10	0.0%
Orlando City SC win	2.25	2.17	-3.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Exploria Stadium