Charlotte v Columbus Crew

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Charlotte win	44%	42%	2.18	fair
Columbus Crew win	31%	32%	3.15	fair
Draw	25%	26%	3.70	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	54%	1.70	fair
Under	43%	46%	2.22	fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	59%	57%	1.57	fair
No	41%	43%	2.32	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Bank of America Stadium